1993年，英国剑桥大学政治与国际研究系前高级研究员马丁·雅克首次来到中国，他看到一个生机勃勃、人人都为幸福生活而奋斗忙碌的景象；三十年后，他再次来到中国，眼前的变化让他赞叹不已，中国已然由高速度增长转型为高质量发展，并在绿色能源等新兴领域引领世界发展。如何理解中国式现代化？创造下一个“中国奇迹”的还是中国吗？在本集节目中，马丁·雅克为您分享他的见解。

马丁·雅克下一个“中国”还是中国

很荣幸有机会与大家交流，希望你们会有所收获。

新中国成立75周年以来发生了巨大的变化。1949年，中国刚刚摆脱半殖民地地位，结束极为惨烈的解放战争，中国当时比不少非洲国家还要贫穷。如果把历史的镜头再拉远一点，回看100年或150年，会发现中国有一点异乎寻常之处，那就是，在这段漫长岁月里，中国经济增速始终极低，年均增长约1%，随后，中国发生了翻天覆地的变化，时至今日，至少从一个指标，即按购买力平价计算的国内生产总值来看，中国已经是世界上最大的经济体，中国的工业门类可能比任何其他经济体更齐全，中国的生活水平发生了翻天覆地的变化，中国已经在很多技术领域中成为领先者，令人刮目相看。中国以光速发生着变化，中国实现了人类历史上最伟大的经济转型，并且仅仅只用了40年时间，40年意味着什么，大概是一个人半辈子的时间。我还记得我第一次来中国时的情形，那是在1993年，当时只是旅游，从香港北上，我坐的是巴士，一路上颠簸不已，路一半是铺好的，一半是泥路，并且路上，出现了过去100到150年间生产的各种交通工具，有最新款贴着深色窗膜的豪华奔驰轿车，但大多数都是非常原始的交通工具。放眼望去，周边有被清理出来以待开发的土地，虽然地处乡下，那里也是人潮涌动，人们忙着生活，一心想要结束穷日子，而中国也大步前行，从昔日的落后走向如今的繁荣。

有一点非常重要，我想特别提及，那就是跟1949年或者1978年相比，今日的中国可以说是已经改头换面，或者说中国变成“一个崭新的地方”，而从深层次来讲，中国依然是那个中国。我想来探讨中国的特别之处，以及为何中国能够在历史上很长一段时期保持如此成功。

中国经历过低谷也创造过辉煌，历史上曾有过三、四个阶段，中国代表了当时世界上最先进的文明或者就是当时最先进的文明之一，中国是基于文明而诞生的国家，这就是其本质。这种文明的状态一直持续到了19世纪后期，也是在19世纪后期，中国才开始呈现出一些民族国家的特点，例如，国界。因为中国作为一种文明，原本并无国界，甚至于直到今天我依然认为，中国首先是一个文明型国家，其次才是民族国家。这与西方截然不同，所有的西方现代国家，都是以民族国家形式而建立的，并作为民族国家而存在，其言行举止也符合民族国家的风格，这一点与中国有明显差异，这里需要着重理解的一点是，中国的一些最根本的特征，虽然大多数人，对此可能觉得理所当然，但这些特征可追溯至中华文明的根源，比如国家和社会的关系、家庭的角色、教育的重要性等方面。比如对个体的理解，中西方存在明显差异，所有这些都是中国文化的基因，是一种文明因子，它们贯穿了中国历史的各个时期。如今，我们身处关键历史时刻，中国正在实现现代化，中国终于接近了西方的发展水平，并在某些领域中超越西方，如果你去西欧一些国家访问，特别是一些西欧小国，你会感受到中国已经进入下一个时代。

接下来我要讲讲为什么，这具有历史性的重大意义。现代化起源于19世纪上半叶的英国工业革命，直到1945年，现代化和现代性，都仅限于描述西方国家，除了日本，所有的现代国家都是西方国家。此外，西方和日本利用现代化成就，征服其他各国，实质上它们推行殖民主义，殖民对象也包括中国，并在殖民过程中故意拖后这些国家的发展，阻碍它们实现现代化，最终导致这些社会陷入瘫痪和停滞的状态，这就是西方现代化的本质特征。而中国式现代化与西方的思维方式截然不同，中国式现代化清楚自己的角色，了解自己在世界上的定位，中国与其他发展中国家站在一起，并为它们提供机会，开启现代化进程，或者深化现代化进程。所以本质上，中国式现代化催生出了惠及发展中国家的公共产品，不要忘了包括中国在内的发展中国家，占到了全球人口的80%到85%，大家要记住一点，西方国家论人口他们只占一小部分，大约是世界人口的12%。

所以接下来的问题是，中国式现代化未来走势如何。我认为这个问题很有意思，中国已经就这个问题展开了大讨论，我此前也提出一个重要观点，那就是中国与世界的关系将会发生变化，尤其是与发展中国家的关系。那么 中国式现代化会是什么样子呢？我觉得这个问题很好，是个引人入胜的问题。中国式现代化会和西方一样吗？还是会有所不同？显然，中国正在探索，与西方不同的现代化之路，中国提出了不同的问题，中国式现代化不会局限于物质利益，也不会仅追求利润，恰恰相反，中国坚持以人为本，优先考虑人民的利益，让人们能够决定自己的生活，用不同的方式做社会的主人。所以大家都能看到，中国走上了一条不同于西方的发展之路，已经从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，绿色增长、零碳增长、实体经济与数字经济相结合这些都是当前发展的重点。所以，中国式现代化有自己的特色，20年之后，跟现在比中国又将发生巨大的改变，人们的生活方式、出行方式 、工作方式等都将发生变化。

但是，我要提出一个想法供大家思考，中国未来一定会展现不同的特点，但实际上，下一个“中国”还是中国。因为中国非凡的历史，延续数千年的文明，带来了无与伦比的优势，不仅使中国获益，也造福整个世界，在不同的时代，中国都做出了卓越的贡献。当下，中国依然在付出，未来，中国还将做出更大贡献。

谢谢大家。

75 years, China has changed so much in that period since the revolution.In 1949, China was just emerging from partial colonization, from a really bitter civil war, and China was poorer at that moment than quite a few African countries.And if you go back further in history, 100 or 150 years and so on, an extraordinary feature of China was that over that whole period,it barely grew at all – it was about one percent a year.So we come to China's extraordinary transformation.Today, by at least one measure, that is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by primary purchasing power, China's economy is the largest in the world.It possesses probably more industrial sectors than any other economy.Its living standards, well, I mean, there's been such an extraordinary change in the situation.And China is a significant leader in various technologies already.This is remarkable.China has changed at the speed of light.It's the most remarkable economic transformation in human history.And it has taken just 40 years.Now, what is 40 years? 40 years is half the average lifetime of a person.Just half.You know I remember my introduction to China, the first time I went to China was in 1993.It was just a sort of tour.It was a tour up from Hong Kong.And I was on this bus, we were bumping along, part of the road was made up, part of it was dirt track and so on.The road itself there were so many different forms of transport from the last 100 to 150 years on that road – the latest flashy Mercedes Benz with darkened windows.But most of them were just very primitive forms of transport.And as far as the eye could see, the land had been cleared for development.And although it was in the countryside, it was teeming with people.And the people were so going about their business.They were so intent on ending a life of poverty.And so China was moving on from backwardness to eventually what you see today.

Now there's one really important point I want to make on this.And that is, look, compared with 1949 or 1978 or today, China is completely unrecognizable. Or is China just a totally different place? Or is it in some profound way, the same China? And I would argue that the extraordinary thing about China and why it has been so successful over such a long period of history, 

It's had bad times, but it's had some great times, for three or four times, (it was)probably the most advanced civilization in the world, or one of the most advanced civilizations in the world.China was born a civilization.That's its template.And that lasted actually until the late 19th century.It was only in the late 19th century that China began to acquire some of the characteristics of a nation state, for example, borders, I mean China as a civilization did not have borders.Even today, China, I would argue, is primarily a civilization state and only secondly, a nation state.It is quite different from the West.The West of all, being modern western countries, born as nation states, and they are nation states, they behave like nation states.China is quite different in relation to this.And the important point here to graspis some of the most fundamental characteristics of China, which probably most of us in some way or other take for granted, are really a product of China's civilizational roots.For example, relationship between state and society, the role of the family, the pivotal importance of education, many other things (like) the notion of the individual.The notion of the individual is very different from the Western way of thinking about individual.All of these things are actually the template of China, which is a civilizational template, which has lasted all through these various different eras of China's history.Now, we are at a major historical point.China is reaching the point of modernity.It has finally arrived at Western levels of development, in some areas it is ahead of Western levels of development.If you go to countries in Western Europe, some of the small ones especially, China's in a different era really.

And the reason why this is historically so significant is as follows:The story of modernization is essentially a Western story.It starts with the British Industrial Revolution in the first half of the 19th century.By as late as 1945, modernization and modernity were an exclusively Western story.Apart from Japan,every country was Western.And what's more, the West and Japan use modernization against the rest of the world.Essentially, they colonize, including China.And in colonizing it, they deliberately held back its development, they prevented modernization.So essentially, those societies were caught in a situation of paralysis and stasis.That was a fundamental characteristic of Western modernization.And Chinese modernization? Well, it is extraordinarily different from the Western mentality.Chinese modernization sees its role, sees its place in the world, alongside other developing countries, to give the opportunity for developing countries, to begin the process or advance along the process of modernization.So essentially, Chinese modernization you can think of as a public good for the developing world.And remember, the developing world including China, accounts for something like 80 to 85 percent of the world's population.The West, always remember this,the West is a splinter of humanity; it is about 12 percent of humanity.

So the question then I think is what is Chinese modernization more generally going to be like? And I think this is a really interesting question.China's clearly now launched on a major debate on this question.I have made one absolutely crucial point.It's going to have a different relationship with the world, the developing world above all.But what is it going to mean in terms of what it's like? I think this is a great question, a fascinating question.Is it going to be like western modernization, or is it going to be something different? And clearly, now China is exploring the possibility of being very different, asking a different question.It is not narrowly for material gain, not narrowly for profit, but on the contrary, it's thinking it should be people-centric, it should be in people's interests, it should allow people to take command of their lives and take command of society in a different kind of way.Now, you can see all, China therefore is embarking now on a different kind of growth.The period of high-speed growth is being replaced by high-quality growth.The green growth, carbon-free growth, these integrating the real economy with the digital economy.These are now the key targets.So China is going to be so different.In 20 years' time, China is going to be so different from what it does now.People will be living in totally different ways, traveling in different ways, doing different kinds of jobs, all the rest of it.

But I leave you with a thought.Sure! China will be very different.But, actually, the next “China” will still be China,because the extraordinary history of China that civilization expands of thousands of years has been hugely beneficial, not just for China, but for the whole world.And in different eras, it's given so much.And in this era, it's giving and in the future, it will give even more.

Thank you very much!